This post was written under the assumption that you have somewhat of an entrepreneurial mindset and background.
If you don’t — read this book, and then return to this post.
Today we’re going to talk about identifying the opportunities with the highest probability of success, and how to exploit them — PLUS — I’m giving you a million dollar business plan - for free.
There are a million ways to get rich — here's one:
Find an emerging trend.
Build a business in that space.
Give it all that you have (for at least 12 months)
You want to put yourself in an asymmetrical position — if it goes well, you make A TON OF MONEY, and if it goes bad — at worst — you lose a little bit of money (and time) — but if you learned some valuable lessons, it’s a win.
When you enter a space that is new and emerging — the odds of winning the game are much more in your favor —- newer and undercapitalized companies are on a more even footing with larger and more established operators — at least for a while.
As the saying goes — a rising tide lifts all boats.
Great businesses solve great problems, and here are a few areas I think are worth pursuing:
Mental Health - Just look at the statistics, especially amongst the younger generation - and I suspect the actual numbers are much higher than what is reported. Now look at the amount of drugs prescribed.
There is emerging awareness that many of these drugs aren’t necessarily good for us — how they are bandaid solutions and don’t actually solve these problems at the root.
I think we’ll look back at history and shake our heads at SSRIs — in the same way that we look back at cigarette smoking — which was heralded as sexy and sophisticated and HEALTHY by doctors (and Hollywood) in the 1950s.
The rise of these issues can be attributed to the new way of living - highly individualized and isolated, inflammatory diets and poor physical health, distance from the natural world, hyper-accelerating technology and screen time, and bombardment of negative and divisive media is the short list.
If you can help people feel better, you’ll be rich — because when someone is in pain, they will spend [any amount] of money for the perception of rescue from suffering — even if it’s temporary.
Pets
The rising popularity of pet ownership is correlated to the rise in mental health issues — pets can bring us a sense of responsibility as well as joy, happiness, companionship, and unconditional love —- a natural source of Oxytocin — a natural source of relief.
There’s another interesting concerning trend to look at — young people are less interested in having kids.
Pets are the new kids, and people tend to spend a lot of money on kids.
Environmental Health
We are more health conscious than ever - and this trend continues to increase as it becomes common sense that good physical health makes us happier and more productive in addition to the 73627 other benefits.
There is already a great amount of awareness about how what what goes IN the body (nutrition) affects how we look and feel —- and now, rising awareness around what goes ON the body (natural personal care products stripped of artificial/harsh chemicals).
The awareness around environmental health risks is still quite low, and especially for city dwellers — who live in what can be considered a macro health risk environment.
Things like the quality of the water you shower in (filters), the quality of the air you breathe (purifiers/masks), and even the noise of a city — all of this has severely understated impacts on physical and mental health — the scientific literature is only beginning to show this now.
When it comes to finding an opportunity in any “emerging space” — you shouldn’t try to reinvent the wheel and come up with a GENIUS IDEA THAT STRIKES YOU LIKE LIGHTNING IN A MOMENT OF INSPIRATION AND NOBODY HAS DONE BEFORE - that’s rookie shit.
Execution of a brand new idea is risky (but does carry a higher reward - until a better capitalized competitor rips you off) -- and generally, when I look at spaces to enter — if something doesn’t exist, there must be a reason for that.
Competition is a good thing — that means there is money worth competing for.
I’ll never forget this lesson from a mentor - imitate, and then innovate.
Look at a space that interests you, look at who is doing well, and then clone them shamelessly.
Identify what you can do better — where your edge is — what you can do differently — or, serve a completely different consumer segment.
Take one simple idea and become obsessed with it.
If you want to validate an idea, Google Trends is your friend — because men lie and women lie, but data does not.
This trend helped me identify CBD as a worthy market to pursue in 2017 —- this put us years ahead of the subsequent “boom” — and it put us in a first movers advantage — I had put myself in a position to get lucky.
When I looked at the space, I noticed a lack of transparency, quality control, and consumer education - things were early, in a legally grey area, and competitors were unethical sketchy and preying on unsophisticated consumers.
So we focused on that as our differentiator— and as one of the first brands in the space to prioritize product quality, public transparency, and consumer education — it helped us rise to prominence in an early and emerging space - and forced the rest of the industry to follow these new standards - a win for everyone.
If you’re in need of a business idea, here’s one that I recently researched and abandoned (due to laziness, mostly):
The awareness around water quality is extremely low.
Did you know that your skin is the largest organ in the body? That the water you shower in is absorbed by your body (and respiratory system)?
That this effects all of the functions of your physiology on the inside — and your skin and hair on the outside?
And did you know how absolutely contaminated, dirty, and damaging the water supply is in the United States?
Just check this to see what’s in your local water supply — it’s disgusting, I know.
If I was looking to start a new business today, this is what I would do — you can position it as a beauty product, or a health product — or build multiple brands selling the same product — with different marketing — targeted at different consumer segments.
You can find some OK filters on AliBaba to brand and sell — but there is no differentiation or defensibility and this is not recommended — you won’t survive very long.
We looked at developing a patented shower filter — that not only purified the water, but infused it with beauty-friendly natural ingredients, and put essential oils in the steam — to create a spa-like aromatic shower experience.
The idea was to create something so good that once you tried it, there was no going back to the old way —- and the economics were stellar:
The consumer would buy the shower-filter, and then we would sell them replacement filters, every 30-60 days or so (on automatic subscriptions).
This helps justify the economics of acquiring customers, and makes the business incredibly attractive to buyers — who absolutely love the stability of recurring subscription revenue.
And if the product is good, and the price is friendly — you can expect consumers to stick around for a very, very, very long time —- even in our CBD business - it’s not uncommon to see consumers on subscription for 3+ years.
Now…
After you make a few million dollars (hopefully more) riding an emerging trend..
You’ll want to invest your money wisely — so you never have to work again —- although I don’t recommend that — an idle mind is the devils playground.
More on that in another letter.
Alon
P.S. When you you identify a good idea in an emerging space— you’ll want to take full advantage of that window in time — because truly great life-changing opportunities are scarce.
It’s not a coincidence that my life completely transformed when I entered a period of deep focus and discipline — disabling my social media and removing everything that wasn’t serving my single-minded and deeply focused tunnel vision.
It’s easy to fool yourself with entertainment disguised as education — but scrolling on the internet — consuming content without conscious intention — is truly detrimental to your mental faculties.
I shared a bit with Forbes about this.
P.P.S. I’m back in building mode and have disabled my social media again — if you enjoyed this post, could you help me promote it by sharing it with someone who might find it valuable?
How To Get Rich AF
I completely disagree with the notion that if something doesn’t exist, there must be a reason for that. Non-existance needs no reason. And the devils play when you welcome them to your ground.
Thank you for the smart words ♡. I like the examples you picked (besides the shower filter)
Super curious about your thoughts re a Software business vs an Ecommerce business as your "scalable vehicle of choice".
Have you also had experience with software? Do you have any insights into how each of these play out?
Also I know you're an advocate of not playing the comparison game. But in your experience, what's the minimum that you'd call "enough"?